In the first round of any fantasy football draft you should only have one goal: to pick the safest player available. I usually allow this goal to carry over for my next 3-4 rounds but your draft strategy is your choice. But none the less it is a proven fact that with your first pick you should have safety as the main goal. That being said I am going to run through the top 10 players in order of their average draft position, and tell you a little about them and give them a safety grade of 1-10.
Also let me go ahead and say that no running back will get a safety rating of 10 because of the amount of hits their bodies take all year. At some point in their career they will all get hurt. Let's just hope it's not while they are on your team. The safety grading will be taking into account: past production, injury history, and projected performance.
Arian Foster- Foster had some small injury issues last year that cause him to miss the first three games and the final game and was still very productive finishing 4th at the running back position. Look for him to be a solid option this year. He gets a lot of touches in the Texans offense and certainly proved he had value in 2010. SAFETY RATING: 8
Ray Rice- Rice has long since had a problem finding the end zone, until last year. Rice had a break out year and finally put up the numbers everyone knew he was capable of. The biggest question for Rice this year is the offensive line in front of him. But don't look for that to slow Ray down as he will get touches & passes. SAFETY RATING: 8
Aaron Rodgers- Rodgers had a very solid year last year and with the same crew back in Green Bay this year look for him to build on that performance. The only missing piece to the Green Bay puzzle is a Gronk or Graham tight end. But don't look for that to slow down the aerial assault as Rodgers is your safest bet this year. SAFETY RATING: 10
LeSean McCoy- Shady McCoy is the best RB this year after a break out year last year. McCoy is a fast back with solid hands. He has the best chance to replicate his production from last year. The high-powered offense in Philadelphia will help McCoy spread the field & keep the defense honest as he gashes them for yard after yard. SAFETY RATING: 9
Tom Brady- Brady has just as good of a chance as Rodgers and maybe better. Why? Because he has better options with Gronk, Welker, and Lloyd. Brady has been a top 3 quarterback for the past three years and has his best group of receivers this year with less talent at running back than ever. He will throw it a bunch. SAFETY RATING: 10
Calvin Johnson- While I am not big on taking wide receivers in the first round Johnson has safety to a degree. Although his production relies on Stafford's health and ability to get him the ball (which has never been a problem). If you are superstitious then beware of the madden curse if not then target this guy at the end of round 1. SAFETY RATING: 6
Chris Johnson- Talk about a guy that people are projecting to come back strong, and you might be talking about Chris Johnson. This guy broke on to the scene in '09 and hasn't left the top running back talks since. Even after a contract hold out where he showed back up over weight and outta shape. Not worth the risk of round 1. SAFETY RATING: 4
Drew Brees- The top quarter back of the year last year will once again be nothing less than a super star. With out his coach there calling the plays Brees will have to take control of the offense, but with 100% team support he will have no issues. Look for a strong year moving the ball around from Drew especially to Graham. SAFETY RATING: 10
Darren McFadden- Besides Chris Johnson, McFadden is the riskiest guy in the top ten this year. He has played four seasons in the NFL and has been injured in all four. After a six game 761 yard performance last year a "foot sprain" cost him his last 9 games. He has also suffered toe, hamstring, and knee injuries. AVOID HIM. SAFETY RATING: 1
Matt Forte- After finishing off his big contract deal Forte can now focus on the field and with the addition of Brandon Marshall to stretch the field Forte will have lots of room to run this year. While Forte has struggled to score touchdowns in the past, look at guys like Ray Rice who struggled with the same issue then broke out and scored them in bunches. This is Forte's year to score and with little injury concern look for Forte to be a top 5 fantasy running back and a steal at number 10. SAFETY RATING: 9
Well that's how the top ten breaks down this year. Remember you want to minimize risk and provide a stable of scoring efforts to your team this year.
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